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California Real Estate Market: Prices | Trends | Forecast 2021

California Real Estate Market: Prices | Trends | Forecast 2021

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Housing data by CAR®. Housing Forecast is an estimate based on data from multiple sources. While it is deemed reliable, it is not guaranteed.

The California housing market ended the year on a high note as sales remained strong in December and median house price reached another record high. Tight supply and steady demand from home buyers have boosted home values across California real estate market. House prices rose steadily over the past year or so, despite the economic slowdown brought on by the pandemic.

Even in the usual off-season, the housing market remains very competitive as homes are selling quickly with a minimal price reduction. There just aren’t enough homes listed for sale to satisfy the demand from buyers. The statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 100.1 percent in December 2020 and 98.3 percent in December 2019.

According to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), over a third (35.5 percent) of homebuyers paid more than what home sellers asked for this year, compared to a quarter (26.7 percent) in 2019. In fact, this year’s level is the highest in seven years and is 16 percent higher than the long-run average.

 

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 509,750 in December on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 0.2 percent from November and up 28 percent from December 2019. For 2020 as a whole, sales of existing statewide homes were up 3.5 percent from last year. The high-end markets ($1 million and above) are showing the most robust sales growth.

For properties worth $3M+, the sales surged by 82.2% YTY. December’s statewide median home price was $717,930, up 2.7 percent from November and up 16.8 percent from December 2019. Earlier, November, the California real estate market had shown the highest level of home sales in nearly 15 years.

While all price segments were more competitive than the prior year, market competition varied between price segments. Mid-priced range homes ($500,000 to $1 million) were the most sought after with 67.3 percent receiving multiple offers. They also received the most multiple offers (6 offers), were the most likely (37.3 percent) to receive an offer at or above the asking price, and sold the fastest (10 days).

The home sales broke the 500,000 sales benchmark for the first time since January 2009 and reaching the highest level in 15 years. Low mortgage rates and intense demand has pushed home-value & sales growth to record levels in the California real estate market. After setting new record highs for four straight months, the median home price had dipped on a month-to-month basis in October for the first time in five months.

Home price again took a breather in November as price gains declined consecutively for the second time on a month-to-month basis. After dipping below $700,000 the previous month, California’s median home price bounced back above that benchmark and set another record high in December, posting a growth of 2.7% MTM.

According to C.A.R., the double-digit increase from last year was the fifth in a row, and the month-to-month gain was higher than the long-run average of 0.8 percent observed between 1979 and 2019. There is an exceptional buyer-interest in the off-season. Mortgage rates are at record lows and builders are having trouble keeping up with the demand.

On Jan 13, 2021, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported a booming refinance activity in the first full week of 2021 caused mortgage applications to surge to their highest level since March 2020, despite most mortgage rates in the survey rising last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed two basis points to 2.88 percent but reversing the trend, the 15-year fixed-rate ticked down to 2.39 percent – a record low.

This has resulted in increased purchasing power for consumers which is likely fueling both the uptick in pending sales last week as well as the acceleration in home prices over the past few months. Home-buyers across California’s biggest cities such as Los Angeles, San Jose, San Diego, Sacramento, and San Francisco are among the most active in purchasing real estate. These markets saw the biggest jump in new mortgages during the third quarter of 2020, according to research by ATTOM Data Solutions.

Table of Contents

 

California Housing Market Sentiment January 2021

Each month C.A.R. surveys 1,000 California consumers regarding their sentiments about various aspects of the housing market or the economy that directly impact housing to create a California Housing Sentiment Index. With the drop of housing sentiment from 80 to 74, Californians are more pessimistic about the market since CAR’s last report. Here’s what consumers feel at this time.

Is it a good time to buy a home in California?

C.A.R.’s monthly Consumer Housing Sentiment Index for January 2021 found that 25% of consumers believe that now is the time to buy, and 75% think this is not a good time to buy. That’s down 2% from December 2020. The California housing market sentiment also shows that 40% of the consumers feel that it will be easier to find a home over the next twelve months. That’s up 3% from December 2020.

Is it a good time to sell a home in California?

59% of Californians in the survey think this is a good time to sell a house. That’s an increase of 4% over the December 2020 poll. Almost half of the consumers (51%) who participated in the survey feel that home prices will rise in the 12 months. That’s again up 2% from December 2020. However, not many people feel positive about the economic recovery. Only 32% believe that economic conditions will improve in the state over the course of the next 12 months while 68% have a negative outlook.


CAR’s January 2021 Housing Sentiment Index

California Housing Market: Weekly Trends (Jan 3 – 9)

CAR’s latest weekly housing data shows that the market is unseasonably strong in the off-season. California’s housing market continues its upward trend with an uptick in both closed and pending sales last week. Also, the number of homeowners in forbearance dipped last week.

For the past 3 weeks, closed sales in California have been rising by more than 30% compared to early 2020 levels. Despite declining inventory and rising challenges on the public health front, nearly 10,000 homes have already closed through last weekend. An average of 665 daily closed transactions was reported in the past week (Jan 3 to 9). That is down 7.2%. 

Pending sales increased last week in every region of the state. After downshifting over the holidays, nearly 4,000 properties went pending last week, which will result in more double-digit growth in closed sales during the second half of the month and into February. An average of 571 pending sales per day was reported in the past week. That is up 26.2%. 

Seller’s optimism is also showing up in the latest weekly trends. An average of 629 new listings per day was reported in the past week, which represents a growth of a whopping 79.5%. Mortgage applications have begun to grow more slowly in recent weeks. Although new purchase applications were up by more than 10% last week, they rose by just 3% the week prior and both represent a marked deceleration from the 20-30% pace we enjoyed through most of December.

California Housing Market Forecast 2021 (Updated)

What are the California real estate market predictions for 2021? California housing market is shaping up to continue the trend of the last few years as one of the hottest markets in the U.S. Let us look at the price trends recorded by Zillow over the past few years. From the beginning of the year 2012 to the end of 2019, the median home price in California appreciated by a massive 85.5%, from $305,000 to $566,000.

Currently, the typical value of homes in California is $609,757 on Zillow. This value is seasonally adjusted to remove outliers and only includes the middle price-tier of homes. California home values have gone up 9% over the past year.

For 2020 as a whole, sales of existing statewide homes were up 3.5 percent from last year and will increase modestly again in 2021. Interest rates will remain low, giving buyers the purchasing power and home prices a boost. Buyer demand remains robust and that has already pushed California’s median price above $700,000. However, inventory is expected to remain a challenge that will keep sales growth in the single digits next year, as reported by C.A.R.

California’s housing market forecast for 2021 is relatively favorable but things may change a bit, given the seriousness of the ongoing pandemic. Here’s what could happen in 2021.

  • The California housing market is highly competitive.
  • Recent forecasts suggest that prices will rise steadily during 2021.
  • Zillow predicts that home prices will rise by 10.6% in the next twelve months (until November 2021).
  • Most California sub-markets saw big home-price gains in 2020.
  • An ongoing shortage of supply is the main reason for price appreciation.
  • With the cost of borrowing at historic lows, buying a home makes more sense than renting for many first-time buyers.
  • Rates are so low right now (2.88% as we write this), we expect them to stay pretty flat for the time being.
  • Interest rates always fluctuate, just as the real estate market does.
  • We don’t see huge changes ahead in the coming months.
  • For repeat buyers, there is an increasing desire for a larger second home.
  • The C.A.R.’s 2020 Annual Housing Market Survey finds that 39 percent of REALTORS® who responded said their buyers are opting for a bigger home.
  • This trend is likely to continue in 2021 as well.
  • 35 percent said buyers are opting for a property with more rooms.
  • 37 percent said buyers are opting to live in a suburb rather than a city.
  • 26 percent said buyers are opting to live in rural areas rather than cities or suburbs.


Courtesy of Zillow.com

The California Association of Realtors’ economic forecast this year looks at several scenarios in predicting whether home prices and sales will rise or fall in 2021. Low mortgage interest rates and pent-up demand will bolster California home sales in 2021, but economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic and continued supply shortage will limit sales growth, according to a housing and economic forecast 

Here’s a rundown of the forecast released by CAR on October 13, 2020. 

  • The CAR’s forecast points towards a modest increase in existing single-family home sales of 3.3 percent next year to reach 392,510 units, up from the projected 2020 sales figure of 380,060.
  • The 2020 figure is 4.5 percent lower compared with the pace of 397,960 homes sold in 2019. Sales have declined for the last three years.
  • The California median home price is forecast to edge up 1.3 percent to $648,760 in 2021, following a projected 8.1 percent increase to $640,330 in 2020 from $592,450 in 2019.
  • The median prices for existing houses, which make up two-thirds of the market, will rise a modest 1.3% next year, hitting $648,760.
  • Low mortgage rates are expected to continue to fuel price growth. The average 2021 rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage will be 3.1% next year, down from 3.2% this year.
  • C.A.R.’s forecast projects California’s 2021 nonfarm job growth rate at 0.5 percent, up from a projected loss of 12.7 percent in 2020. The state’s unemployment rate will dip to 9.0 percent in 2021 from this year’s projected rate of 10.8 percent.
  • The number of homes on the market was down 50% in 2020 and is expected to stay low in the coming year, creating a more upward push on home prices.

“The uncertainty about the pandemic, sluggish economic growth, a rise in foreclosures, and the volatility of the stock market are all unknown factors that could keep prices in check and prevent the statewide median price from rising too fast in the upcoming year,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.


Courtesy of Car.org

California Housing Forecast 2021: What Do We Think!

The most important thing to remember is that it is a health crisis – not an economic one. This pattern differs from a standard economic recession, which is a situation in which economic activity falls for 6-18 months and then recovers more slowly.

According to Aaron Kirman, host of CNBC’s Listing Impossible, “while the lasting effect of the coronavirus pandemic is still unknown when the pandemic eventually comes to an end, it’s going to be a buyers’ market.” The current housing inventory level is trending towards a balanced real estate market.

Due to a wave of job losses nationwide, this will create many distressed home sellers in the California real estate market, as well. Yet this is a buying opportunity for investors who have financing. The slowdown in what is normally a busy season will cause some realtors to go out of business.

Mortgage brokers and lenders will experience a boom in business since record low-interest rates cause a spike in mortgage refinances. We’ll also see a flurry of activity in the California real estate market as people pick up where they left off. For example, those who wanted to move before school starts in the fall aren’t going to wait another year to see what the housing market is going to do.

They’ll rush to showings and try to close on a property, as long as their personal financial situation is stable. We can expect the summer of 2021 to see record activity in the California housing market due to the standard spike in real estate transactions before the school year starts.

On top of this are the young graduates and couples that want to buy their own homes. Plus there will be long-term renters who recognize the opportunity that 3.1 percent 30-year mortgage rates represent, searching for homes once they can be pre-approved for a mortgage and visit properties.

There will be a slower economy for a while, but several ongoing trends aren’t going to reverse themselves. Millennials will want to move out of their parents’ homes and into their own. We can’t say there will be a coronavirus led baby boom, but many families having been stuck inside with their kids will decide they want a larger home, yard, or both.

We can talk about the many people who’ve moved out of California to other states. Yet the state continues to attract immigrants from around the world. And young native-born Americans flock here for the high paying jobs, as well. That isn’t going to change due to the virus. Tech giants expanding to Seattle or Portland haven’t relocated their development hubs out of Silicon Valley.

Furthermore, the demand for rentals in the California housing market remains strong. This is why we don’t expect to see a decline in monthly rents, though housing prices may fall significantly before shooting back up. A secondary effect of the coronavirus outbreak is that it has crimped supply chains around the world and slowed down construction.

This will drive up the value of both new and existing properties in the California housing market since the supply of new and redeveloped properties has been stifled. And there is certainly the possibility the California housing market will see bidding wars on the few available and desirable properties by people who have more margin thanks to historically low mortgage rates.

We can expect a few shifts in the California housing market long-term. Realtors will probably continue to utilize 3D virtual tours, using 360 cameras to capture images of every room in the house. This helps them sell the home 24x7x365, whether or not everyone is stuck at home.

While appraisers, stages, and construction crews can’t work remotely, we can expect far more back-office work in the real estate industry to be done remotely because that’s become commonplace. We can also expect online contract reviews and digital signatures to become the norm because it allows real estate transactions to move forward through some of the participants are at home.

Demand for housing was very strong before the coronavirus hit the U.S. This pandemic is not expected to last nearly as long as the United States subprime mortgage crisis, which was a nationwide financial crisis, occurring between 2007 and 2010.

The sharp sales drop in May was the steepest we’ve seen but there are encouraging signs that show the market is recovering and should continue to improve for the remainder of 2020.

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Some of the realtors saw no decline in their businesses even during the peak of the pandemic. According to them, the real estate sector was really active even in the pandemic. The way of operating business has changed. People are working from home. They are using applications like FaceTime to show buyers homes instead of traditional open houses.

Lenders experienced a surge in demand as opportunistic buyers move to take advantage of low mortgage rates. Brett Jennings, the founder of Real Estate Experts, writes, “our market is still thriving” in Santa Clara County, seeing only a few cancellations despite shelter-in-place conditions and the fact that “we have one of the highest counts of active COVID-19 cases in California.”

According to Dr. Svenja Gudell, the chief economist of Zillow Group, when they examined pandemic histories ranging from the 1918 flu epidemic to the 2003 SARS outbreak, they noted that economies “snapped back quickly once the epidemic was over.”

Residential real estate is likely to fare far better than the commercial real estate sector. Sometimes, you have to take advantage of these market disruptions to see that many investors will pump the brakes on investing out of fear and other illogical emotional reasons, while others see the opportunity of having access to more real estate inventory, possibly better pricing, and still historically low-interest rates.

California Housing Market 2020 Summary: Prices | Sales | Inventory

Before the coronavirus outbreak, the declining interest rates bolstered February home sales and prices in the California housing market. The no. of home sales in February went up 6.6 percent from the 395,700 level in January, marking the first time in three months that sales jumped above the 400,000 benchmarks. February also marked the eighth consecutive month of year-over-year sales increases, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

According to a United States Department of Commerce report, the median price nationwide for a home sold in February was $345,900, up 6.3 percent from January. As the coronavirus pandemic hit the country, the sales activity in the California housing market took a sharp decline. Many buyers backed out of purchase due to coronavirus concerns. Due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the new California home sales also began to drop from March onward. Here’s the review of the California real estate market from March onward.

Impact of COVID-19 on the California housing market

 

The immediate impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the California housing market was that realtors canceled their open houses and half of all agents reported a drop in buyer interest. A flash poll conducted by C.A.R. between March 14-16 found that 54% of realtors had buyers who backed out from buying a home because of the coronavirus, and about 45% had sellers who backed out from selling a property. The pandemic further impacted the buying or selling of a house as California issued a statewide ‘stay at home’ order on March 19 to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

All non-essential businesses were essentially shut down. The real estate industry and many businesses that support it have been deemed non-essential. Real estate transactions like home buying, title research, residential leasing, and renting were allowed to continue. So were things like building maintenance and cleaning. Home construction was typically allowed to continue, as well. This meant that people could continue to live in their apartment and call the property manager to get the plumbing fixed.

Home sales and purchases already begun could be completed. However, it became much more difficult to arrange open houses or take photos of a property for sale. Some realtors adapted by setting up virtual showings of properties, whether it was via cell phone video, high-resolution photos, or drone. However, photographers can’t travel to properties, while stagers and appraisers can’t travel to homes that owners want to sell.

This froze the housing market for the most part due to shelter-in-place orders. Financial services were considered essential; this included banks and mortgage lenders. Unfortunately, the shutdown of up to 80 percent of the country means many are afraid to take out a home loan even if they still have a job. That is why mortgage applications fell by 30 percent in the last quarter of March 2020 while unemployment applications hit a record three million.

The U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are that over 40 million people have already lost their jobs.

As new coronavirus cases were detected in California and the ‘shelter-in-place’ mandate was extended, a sharp sales decline increased unsold inventory – leading to a balanced real estate market. The COVID-19 pandemic kept both buyers and sellers on the sidelines in the California housing market. Many potential sellers delayed putting their homes on the market, which led to fewer new listings. Some of the buyers were excited and decided to not enter the market due to their weak financial condition. California home sales experienced the worst month-to-month sales decline in more than four decades.

Home sales dropped sharply in April from both the previous month and year as the housing market began to feel the full impact of the state’s stay-at-home order, according to C.A.R.

This was because of a decline in open houses and home showings which are impossible to be held in such conditions.  Existing, single-family home sales totaled 277,440 in April on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 25.6 percent from March and down 30.1 percent from April 2019. Additionally, sales in escrow were also delayed by the closure or limited availability of all the essential services related to a home sale.

The statewide median price remained above the $600,000 benchmark for the second consecutive month in April, price growth showed clear signs of softening when compared to the past six months. The April statewide median price of $606,410 for existing single-family homes in the state dipped 1.0 percent from March, and the 0.6 percent gain was essentially flat from April 2019, when the median price was $603,030. The year-over-year price gain was substantially smaller than the six-month average gain of 7.8 percent recorded between October 2019 and March 2020.

California home sales fell to the lowest level since the Great Recession as the housing market suffered the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic in May, according to a June 16 release by CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. As housing demand in California fell sharply in May, home prices also took a dip. The median home price fell below last year’s price for the first time since February 2012 and breaking the state’s 98-month year-over-year price gain streak.

All major regions dipped in sales by more than 35 percent from last year. The Bay Area and Central Coast dropping the most at -51.1 percent each. Southern California home sales dropped by -45.6 percent, and the Central Valley by -36.6 percent. Existing single-family home sales were down by 13.9 percent from April and down by 41.4 percent from May 2019. May’s statewide median home price was $588,070, down 3.0 percent from April and down 3.7 percent from May 2019. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 12.9 percent in May.

Median prices continued to dip in May from last year in the Central Coast and the Bay Area but inched up slightly in the Central Valley region. The median home price was virtually unchanged in Southern California. The unsold inventory index jumped to 4.3 months in May from 3.4 months in April and was up from 3.2 months in May 2019. Total active listings continued to decline on an annual basis for the 11th consecutive month.

The 34 percent year-over-year decrease in listings was the biggest drop since March 2013. The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home dipped to 17 days in May from 18 days in May 2019. C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio was 99.7 percent in May 2020, up slightly from 99.3 in May 2019.

After the California real estate market suffered its worst month in 13 years, California’s Realtors and landlords saw a big rebound in June. The housing markets in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, and Sacramento saw the biggest recovery. Home Sales were up 42.4 percent from May and down 12.8 percent from June 2019. The luxury market suffered the most with more than 50% drops in sales. Sales Price to List Price Ratio of 99.5% in June means homes are selling for very close to their listing prices.

June’s statewide median home price was $626,170, up 6.5 percent from May and up 2.5 percent from June 2019. Throughout the state, single-family home prices rose 6.5% to $626, 170, or a rise of $38,000 from the previous month. Sales grew 42.5% from May. California condo prices rose 4.6% and month-to-month sales increased by 68.5%. Condo prices have risen 4.6% YoY while sales slumped 16.2%.

The return in the COVID-19 cases remains a concern across the nation as well as California, and it may hinder the recovery of the housing market in the second half of 2020. Meanwhile, the lowest ever mortgage rates have been able to increase the buyer activity, which in turn may help to sustain the rise in sales in the coming months.

After falling to the lowest level since the Great Recession, continued to improve in August as home sales climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as the median home price broke last month’s record and hit another high, according to September 16 release by C.A.R.

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 465,400 in August on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 6.3 percent from July and up 14.6 percent from August 2019. August’s statewide median home price was $706,900 up 6.1 percent from July and up 14.5 percent from August 2019. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 6.8 percent in August.

In September, the California housing market outperformed expectations, breaking record high median price for the fourth straight month. Existing, single-family home sales totaled 489,590 in September on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 5.2 percent from August and up 21.2 percent from September 2019.

September’s statewide median home price was $712,430 up 0.8 percent from August and up 17.6 percent from September 2019. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 3.7 percent in September. The home price exceeded the $700,000 mark for the second consecutive month.

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 484,510 in October on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 1.0 percent from September and up 19.9 percent from October 2019. October’s statewide median home price was $711,300 down 0.2 percent from September and up 17.5 percent from October 2019. Year-to-date statewide home sales were down 1.3 percent in October.

Existing, single-family home sales totaled 508,820 in November on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, up 5.0 percent from October and up 26.3 percent from November 2019. November’s statewide median home price was $699,000 down 1.7 percent from October and up 18.5 percent from November 2019. Year-to-date statewide home sales were up 1.3 percent in November.

California Housing Market Report For December 2020


Infographic Courtesy of CAR

Here are some of the highlights of how the California housing market performed in December 2020, according to the January 15 release by C.A.R.

Existing-Home Sales

  • At the regional level, sales increased by double-digits in all major regions in December, with a year-over-year gain of over 20 percent for each region, except the Central Coast region.
  • The San Francisco Bay Area remained on top with the highest gain of 40.2 percent over last year.
  • Southern California (31.4 percent).
  • The Far North (30.8 percent) and the Central Valley (22.2 percent).
  • Sales in the Central Coast region were softer than the other regions but still improved 17.1 percent from a year ago.
  • For the year as a whole, all major regions except the Far North surpassed their 2019 sales levels.
  • The Central Coast was the strongest market among all regions, with annual sales increasing 5.5 percent from 2019.
  • Both the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California recorded a sales improvement of 1.9 percent from last year, while the Central Valley inched up 0.3 percent.
  • The Far North was the only major region that trailed behind last year’s level, with a slight dip of 0.3 percent.

 

Median Home Price

  • At the regional level, all major regions posted an increase in the median price from last year by more than 10 percent.
  • The Central Coast region had the largest year-over-year price increase in December, gaining 17.9 percent from a year ago.
  • The San Francisco Bay Area had the second-largest increase of 16.4 percent.
  • The Central Valley had the third-largest increase of 15.5 percent.
  • The Far North (15.2 percent) and Southern California (13.0 percent).
  • All but one of the 51 counties tracked by C.A.R. reported a year-over-year price gain, with 48 of them increasing by 10 percent or more. Mono had the highest price growth, with an increase of 120 percent year-over-year.
  • Lassen was the only county whose median price dropped, declining 13.1 percent from a year ago.

 

California Housing Supply

  • Unsold Inventory Index (UII) dropped to 1.3 months in December, matching the record-low set in spring 2004.
  • The index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales.
  • Active listings fell 47.1 percent from last year and continued to drop more than 40 percent on a year-over-year basis for the seventh straight month.
  • On a month-to-month basis, for-sale properties dropped 18.6 percent in December, higher than the 5-year average of -14.0 percent, observed between 2015 and 2019.
  • Except for the Bay Area, all major regions experienced a year-over-year decline of 35 percent or more in active listings in December.
  • Active listings in Central Valley had the biggest year-over-year drop of 50.9 percent in December
  • Active listings in Southern California declined by 50.5 percent.
  • Active listings in the Far North declined by 39.9 percent.
  • Active listings in the San Francisco Bay Area declined by 15.5 percent.
  • Forty-eight of the 51 counties reported by C.A.R. experienced a year-over-year decline in active listings in December.
  • Merced had the biggest drop from last year, with a decline of 70.1 percent.
  • Twenty counties had less than half the active listings they had in December 2019.

Median Days & Sales Price to List Price Ratio

  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 11 days in December, down from 28 days in December 2019, and only 2 days longer than the lowest number of days ever recorded in the previous month.
  • C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 100.1 percent in December 2020 and 98.3 percent in December 2019.
  • Looking at sale-to-list percentages can help buyers and sellers get a sense of how to negotiate on pricing. The higher ratio of 100% or above shows a strong market favoring sellers.
  • December’s price per square foot was $330 compared to $289 in December 2019.
  • While the December 2020 figure did not set a new record, it was still the second-highest statewide median price per square foot since August 2007.

Mortgage Interest Rate

  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.68 percent in December, down from 3.72 percent in December 2019, according to Freddie Mac.
  • The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate was an average of 2.79 percent, compared to 3.39 percent in December 2019

California Housing Market – Regional Sales and Price Trends – December 2020

The San Francisco Bay Area remained on top with the highest gain of 40.2 percent over last year, followed by Southern California (31.4 percent), the Far North (30.8 percent), and the Central Valley (22.2 percent). Sales in the Central Coast region were softer than the other regions but still improved 17.1 percent from a year ago.

The Central Coast region had the largest year-over-year price increase in December, gaining 17.9 percent from a year ago. The San Francisco Bay Area had the second-largest increase of 16.4 percent, followed by the Central Valley (15.5 percent), the Far North (15.2 percent), and Southern California (13.0 percent).

December 2020 Median Sold Price of Existing Single-Family Homes Sales
State/Region/County Dec. Nov. Dec. Price MTM% Chg Price YTY% Chg Sales MTM% Chg Sales YTY% Chg
2020 2020 2019
Calif. Single-family home $717,930 $698,980 $614,880 2.70% 16.80% 0.20% 28.00%
Calif. Condo/Townhome $520,000 $520,000 $477,000 0.00% 9.00% 8.30% 31.30%
Los Angeles Metro Area $625,250 $630,000 $550,000 -0.80% 13.70% 14.30% 31.60%
Central Coast $825,000 $825,000 $700,000 0.00% 17.90% 5.30% 17.10%
Central Valley $395,000 $400,000 $342,000 -1.30% 15.50% 5.40% 22.20%
Far North $325,000 $340,000 $282,000 -4.40% 15.20% 18.00% 30.80%
Inland Empire $450,000 $450,000 $385,000 0.00% 16.90% 13.00% 34.90%
San Francisco Bay Area $1,058,000 $1,100,000 $908,750 -3.80% 16.40% 1.50% 40.20%
Southern California $650,000 $657,820 $575,000 -1.20% 13.00% 12.40% 31.40%

These numbers can be positive or negative depending on which side of the fence you are — Buyer or Seller? It is a win-win scenario for both sellers and buyers. The California housing market would continue its V-shaped recovery in the coming months. Home sales rebounded in June for the first time since the pandemic and California’s median home price reached $626,170, improving 6.5 percent from May and 2.5 percent from June 2019.

The monthly price increase was higher than the historical average price change from May to June and, in fact, was the highest ever recorded for a May-to-June change. Factors are businesses reopening, mortgage payments are falling, and some sellers are more ready and eager to sell. Sales remain strong in a traditional off-season and December looks promising across the region. It looks like 2020 will end with a new record at home sales and prices.

However, due to an underlying recession and financial slump, a full recovery is not likely to begin until 2021. There is also a fear of the pandemic hitting back. Cases are rising and the government has brought back restrictions. The state and local officials are rapidly adding new restrictions in hopes of slowing the infection rate.

The new lockdown measures include a limited late-night curfew in most of California and the shuttering of outdoor restaurant dining in Los Angeles County. The year to date sales is expected to remain below pre-COVID-19 levels if the buyers and sellers step out of the market amid the rising cases of coronavirus.

Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, timing your local market is an important part of real estate investment.

For sellers in the California housing market, it is a good time to sell. A low inventory would keep the prices from falling. Sales Price to List Price ratio has been 100.1% in December, which means homes are selling for almost at their asking prices. A seller would always prefer this ratio to be close to 100% or higher.

For buyers in the California housing market, it is a good time to buy. Unsold inventory has dropped as there are fewer active listings and sales are rising. The inventory is low with a supply equalling 1.3 months for single-family homes and 1.6 months for condos. The index indicates the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current rate of sales.

This will lead to much higher price growth. However, low-interest rates continue to fuel optimism for homebuying. The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 2.68 percent in December, down from 3.72 percent in December 2019, according to Freddie Mac.

Recent forecasts from industry groups like Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association have predicted that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage could stay within the low 3% range well into 2021. Interest rates will remain low giving buyers the purchasing power and home prices a boost. All of these factors have led to the market to optimism in homebuyers.

References:

  • https://www.car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases
  • https://www.zillow.com/ca/home-values
  • https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/265
  • https://sf.curbed.com/2020/3/23/21188781/sf-housing-market-coronavirus-covid-19
  • https://www.ppic.org/publication/new-patterns-of-immigrant-settlement-in-california
  • https://fox40.com/news/business/local-real-estate-market-slows-amid-covid-19-pandemic
  • https://www.point2homes.com/news/us-real-estate-news/experts-california-real-estate-2020.html
  • https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/02/27/mortgage-rates-head-back-down-coronavirus-fears
  • https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/weekly-mortgage-applications-drop-over-8percent-as-interest-rates-jump.html
  • https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-03-25/business-fallout-companies-in-china-see-delays-in-reopening
  • https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2020/03/25/homeowners-who-cant-pay-their-mortgages-are-getting-help
  • https://www.wfsb.com/news/businesses-considered-essential-under-stay-safe-stay-home-policy/article_53f8e0d0-6d17-11ea-a04d-57ecbb72c518.html

Should You Invest In The Dallas Real Estate Market?

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